Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 25.969343 28.703125 31.806843 35.638860 40.311973 45.921975 53.323629
2025-03-09 21.911380 25.351034 29.588930 35.356742 43.290027 54.328408 71.973314
2025-03-16 19.175410 22.894931 27.751580 34.867943 45.672280 62.865641 96.496140
2025-03-23 17.254103 21.090426 26.326662 34.467553 47.919678 72.210159 131.492428
2025-03-30 15.836587 19.720669 25.214908 34.192247 50.185316 82.830094 185.588886
2025-04-06 14.555639 18.365365 23.894413 33.267617 50.970902 91.032438 254.110709
2025-04-13 14.092961 18.108044 24.148843 34.952093 57.263821 117.335144 555.159646
2025-04-20 13.290598 17.258125 23.355076 34.618057 59.245144 134.241487 1173.429375
2025-04-27 12.710756 16.684123 22.925062 34.856577 62.641987 160.919735 8009.266792
2025-05-04 12.225287 16.208228 22.593789 35.210919 66.511589 197.495098 NaN
2025-05-11 11.753954 15.713500 22.171725 35.298504 69.760192 240.634868 NaN
2025-05-18 11.234481 15.103637 21.488720 34.723351 70.905520 276.338750 NaN
2025-05-25 10.840412 14.675376 21.096845 34.740273 74.068124 346.635723 NaN
2025-06-01 10.436904 14.206220 20.590683 34.427221 76.102579 425.481921 NaN
2025-06-08 10.046526 13.735675 20.043471 33.940910 77.400953 516.347793 NaN
2025-06-15 9.700886 13.320182 19.565445 33.549856 78.971888 649.269627 NaN
2025-06-22 9.397880 12.959698 19.162608 33.283016 81.001559 866.876208 NaN
2025-06-29 9.045725 12.499178 18.539411 32.397247 80.134786 996.340702 NaN
2025-07-06 8.996802 12.550084 18.893766 34.006616 91.334105 3818.680466 NaN
2025-07-13 8.745009 12.238775 18.520763 33.687185 93.307754 10652.489038 NaN
2025-07-20 8.564789 12.042927 18.361341 33.914885 98.432939 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.405906 11.876409 18.247892 34.253222 104.635216 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.232581 11.676316 18.052599 34.336820 109.573704 NaN NaN